2013 Prospect Risk Analysis Metric

The ultimate goal of this annual project is to bring together as many factors as possible that might correlate with a prospect’s career success.

To do this, every available element of data is normalized into numeric values and then weighted into an overall grade. The value in applying this formula is that it allows for the data to be organized and incorporated into macro-level analysis.

This metric also allows for unique intra-positional comparisons to be made across numerous layers of data.

The four major categories weighted together are:

1) Tape Grade– Each player is intricately graded on a position-specific criteria. This grade carries the most weight and is determined exclusively by my observations on tape alone. So a prospect may run a 4.3 40-yard dash but if he shows up slow on tape my final tape grade will reflect that and not any timed results.

2) Measurables Grade– This is the combined score of everything that prospect brings to the table with regard to physical tools. This consists only of measurable data generated at the combine or pro days.

3) Production Grade–  Each prospect is graded on career production using a weighted formula and position-specific stats. Grades are determined by comparing the stats of prospects within the same position.

4) Character Reputation Injury Grade– This category carries the least amount of weight in the final score for obvious reasons. It considers all miscellaneous factors that may alter a prospect’s career success, such as legal issues, injuries and/or age.

Total Grade Average= The weighted total of the Measurables, Tape, Production, and Character/Injury. The percentage of each category valued is shown in the header. Note: Offensive Linemen were weighted as follows (35%, 50%, 10%, 5%) Quarterbacks were weighted as (15%, 55%, 20%, 10%). If the measurables data was incomplete then the weighted value adjusted accordingly. Note: These percentages were modified each year in the newer version of the metric but left unchanged in the past versions to keep record of its evolution.

To interpret the data within the measurables, use the key below.

Dynamic Speed (DSA)= The combined average times of a prospect’s 40, short shuttle and 3 cone. This allows for a better comparison of the straight ahead, lateral, and change of direction speed of a given prospect.

Dynamic Explosion (DET)= The prospect’s combined number of bench reps, vertical jump, and broad jump. This gives a more complete gauge of the prospect’s explosive capabilities.

Dynamic Speed Average with Weight (DSA/Weight)= is based off a formula that takes into account the prospects weight and the average of all three speed times to produce a number that reflects a player’s speed relative to their weight. The goal is to put prospects of various weight groups on a level playing field when determining speed.

Each of these elements are combined to create a complete Measurable Grade.

Note: Any data highlighted in grey is an estimate on the low end of their positional average in order to give the prospect a complete measurables score.

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